Contrary to the NIE report, Iran is building nuclear weapons

Reported by debkafile:

The Iranian exile group exposed this week Iran’s secret B1 Nori-8500 nuclear facility .
This classified data, DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s intelligence sources report, was released on the initiative of France and Israel to finally rebut the NIE’s conclusions.
It was also timed to pre-empt the report Dr. Mohammed ElBaradei, director of the Vienna-based International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), is due to present Friday, Feb. 22, to the UN Security Council on the state of Iran’s nuclear program.

Washington sticks to the NIE’s clearance of Iran
A spokesman for the Office of the Director of National Intelligence in Washington, said the US intelligence community’s view has not changed since the NIE’s release. Convinced that the US intelligence estimate of last December tied President George W. Bush’s hands for a military option against Iran’s nuclear sites, the French and Israeli leaders , Srakozy and Olmert decided to go forward without America towards an Israeli military operation. France intends to take America’s place in providing intelligence and diplomatic backing in the European and international arenas.

The chronology of events leading up to this ultimate prospect, as listed by DEBKA-Net-Weekly, is instructive:
September 6, 2007: Israeli air and ground forces raided two presumed nuclear sites in Syria. North Koreans were involved in their development.
The information broadcast by these attacks was that Israel is capable of striking nuclear sites similar to Iran’s B1 Nori 8500 facility. This capability demonstratively extends to demolition and removing the equipment housed at the facility, lock, stock and barrel, to home base.
The operation also demonstrated that the Russian air defense systems guarding Iran’s most sensitive military sites were electronically permeable and therefore not proof against Israel air attack.
January 17, 2008: Israel tested a ballistic missile over the Mediterranean fitted with a powerful new propulsion engine. This told Tehran that the Israel Defense Forces has missiles capable of reaching any point on earth. Before this test, the Iranians had judged large areas of their north and east outside Israeli missile range.
February 4, 2008: Tehran quickly responded by launching its Kavoshgar-1 long-range missile “to test its launching systems.”
February 12, 2008: Imad Mughniyeh, master of Tehran’s overseas military-terrorist branch, was killed in the heart of Damascus. Iran thus lost the key strategist assigned with charting and commanding its overseas reprisals for a possible Israeli attack.
That day, too, Israel took the precaution of placing its military forces and intelligence services on the ready in case of a comeback from Iran, Syria, or Hizballah.
February 20, 2008: Iran’s secret plants for producing nuclear weapons and warheads were identified and exposed at the Brussels news conference.

Sarkozy’s game

Sarkozy’s believes an unambiguous and strong French line on Iran’s ambition to attain a nuclear bomb could be the vehicle that carries him to European if not world leadership.
Secondly, he is bound by a commitment to Saudi and other Gulf rulers.
During his mid-January tour of their region, Sarkozy informed his hosts that French intelligence had obtained incontrovertible evidence that Iran had begun building nuclear bombs and warheads. The decision to establish a French base in Abu Dhabi was presented as necessary for tracking Iran’s nuclear and military activities. He promised to keep Gulf rulers abreast of events with full updates.
At home, the French public had been told repeatedly by officials in the president’s bureau and government from the end of last year that Iran is heading for a nuclear bomb. Sarkozy needs to show he is not all talk, but also capable of action.

BLOGGER COMMENT
These events prove that the CIA is still bound by political considerations rather than the need to provide accurate information to the government. Still smarting over the Iraq war, the CIA is determined not to give the president the opportunity to justify a strike on another country. That the NIE report is political, not factual, gives the debka report credibility.

The US (Bush) has publicly stated his understanding of Israel's need to do what it has to do to Iran. However, the US will be on the sideline when/if that transpires. In the cyclic Franco-Teutonic-Russian poltical machinations, France is now on the side of Israel against Iran and presumably Russia.

However, Israel has a number of limitations in its ability to carry out a strike against Iranian nuclear weapons. Iran is a much larger country, and has the capacity to hurt Israel not only from Iran but also from Lebanon, Syria and the Gaza Strip, and to hurt Jewish communities around the world, such as they did in the past in Argentina. Israel specialized in surgical strokes against small but vital targets such as Osiraq in 1981 and Syria earlier this year (twice; once against their nuclear station if it was that, and once against Mughniyeh if they indeed were involved). A counter strike against Israel could be potentially devastating and even potentially destroy the country.

Moreover, the United States would not automatically support Israel in a future administration. President Obama and President McCain might have different views than President Bush about an Israeli strike. If Israel is planning to strike Iran it most likely would do so before Bush leaves office.